Macroeconomic Indicators

Macroeconomic indicator is a statistic that indicates the current status of the economy of a state depending on a particular area of the economy (industry, labor market, trade, etc.). Macroeconomic indicators are published regularly at a certain time. After publication of these indicators we can observe volatility of the market. The degree of volatility is determined depending on the importance of an indicator. That is why it is important to understand which indicator is important and what it represents.

U.S. macroeconomic indicators

Atlanta Fed index

It is regional manufacturing survey that covers Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee and Louisiana. The index gives a signal of factory-sector expansion when above zero and contraction when below it. This index has a limited impact on the market as published after ISM index. The increased value of the index is a favorable factor for USD growth.

Significance: Low

Publication: after the 10th of the month, 9.00 (EST)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Web:www.frbatlanta.org


Average hourly earnings

It represents an average level of changes in hourly wages. The indicator is expressed in terms of absolute value and as an index relative to the previous period or in the form of the average hourly or weekly wage. It is an indicator of potential inflation but also an indicator of future consumer spending. It has a significant impact on the market. When there are expectations of increase in interest rates its value can lead to USD growth. The growth of wages fastening productivity would give a signal of dangers of price increases and that would be confirmation of readiness of the FED to raise interest rates.

Significance: Low

Publication: 8:30 (EST), the first Friday of the month.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor (US)

Web:www.bea.gov

Web site of publication:www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm


Average weekly hours

This index determines the status of industrial production and personal income. It is considered to be an important indicator of labor market conditions: the growth of the working week at the early stage of the business cycle may be a signal that employers are prepared to raise wages while at the end of the growth cycle length of the workweek may indicate that employers have difficulty in finding skilled workers. The indicator shows the average weekly working hours during the month. It is expressed in terms of absolute value and as an index relative to the previous period and has no impact on the market. This indicator is used for a long-term analysis of the employment. It is a good indicator of the labor market at different stages of economic cycle. It is believed to be one of the determinative indicators for such indicators as "Industrial production" and "Personal income", the values of which are published later.

Significance: Low

Published: 8.30 (EST), the first Friday of each month

Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics

Web:www.stats.bls.gov


Beige book

It represents a report of twelve banks of the Fed. It covers the area of manufacturing, services, agriculture, financial institutions, labor market, and real estate market. It has a limited impact on the market. When rumors of a possible change in interest rates appear on the market, then attention is paid to the part of the review where the status of wages and prices are described. The book is a source of confirmation of the already established trend in the economy.

Its value is published 8 times a year, on Wednesday, two weeks before the next meeting of FOMC, 2:00 PM (EST). The report is used for assessment of economic efficiency of regions and as an indicator of future monetary policy-making of FOMC.


Building permits

The indicator shows the number of permits for the construction of new homes. The number of permits issued is collected from 19 thousand organizations, and are considered to be a indicator of the number of constructions which will begin in the near future. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in basic interest rates as it is necessary to obtain bank loans. These data are subject to seasonal fluctuations. The process of construction is directly connected with state income. Therefore, the increase in the volume of construction is an improvement in its well-being and healthy development of the economy. It has a limited impact on the market. The growth of its value has a positive impact on the currency.

Significance: Low

Publication: second or third week of the month at 8.30 AM (EST) simultaneously with a "Housing starts".

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Web: www.census.gov

Web site of publication: www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.html


Business inventories

This indicator includes all manufacturing and goods stored in warehouses. There is the following regularity: an increase in stocks during several months may indicate the existence of stagnant phenomena in the economy. In other words, the increase in the indicator suggests weak marketing products. Overstocking warehouses negatively characterizes the state of the economy and lead to currency weakening. It i published in terms of three indicators: inventories, sales and ratio related to the realization. The impact of this indicator on the market is limited. However, a stable trend in its dynamics has a great influence on the market.

Significance: Low

Publication: 16.30 Moscow time, monthly through 6 days after data on durable goods

Source: US Census Bureau

Web: www.census.gov


Capacity utilization

It represents the ratio of total industrial output value to the total productivity of industries. This indicator determines the degree of capacity utilization industry. The level of 85% indicates a good balance between economic growth and inflation. The value above this level causes the inflation processes in the country's economy. It has a limited impact on the market. The growth of this index leads to an increase in the national currency.

Significance: Low

Publication: 15th of the month at 9:15 AM (EST) simultaneously with Industrial production.

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Web: www.federalreserve.gov

Web site of publication: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm


Chicago PMI index

It is the index of industrial enterprises of the Chicago region. The indicator represents the results of a survey of purchasing managers in the industry of Chicago and the status of production orders, prices of products and inventories in warehouses. The value below 50 indicates a slowdown in the economy and an increase in economic activity in the region if its value exceeds 50. It is kept a close eye on because it is published shortly before ISI (NAPM). This index has a high impact on the market. The growth of the index results in an increase in USD.

Significance: High

Publication: last business day of the month at 10:00 AM (EST)

Source: The National Association of Purchasing Management - Chicago (NAPM)

Web: www.napm-chicago.net/home

Web site of publication: www.kingbiz.com/libr /ary.asp


Construction spending

The indicator is expressed as an index against the previous period and in the form of absolute values of costs. It is divided into costs for construction of houses in the city, outside the city, spending of the population for new construction. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in basic interest rates as it is necessary to take bank loans for construction. These data are subject to seasonal fluctuations. The process of construction is directly connected with the population income. Therefore, the increase in the volume of construction is the improvement of their well-being and healthy development of the economy. It has a limited impact on the market. The growth of its value has a positive impact on the currency.

Significance: Low

Publication: first business day of the month at 10:00 AM (EST).

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Web: www.census.gov/const/www/c30index.html


Consumer confidence

This report defines the optimism of consumers. Conference Board conducts monthly surveys of 5000 households selected for the assessment of the labor market, conditions for business, and their own assessments about the prospects for an increase in their earnings. The ground of level is the data taken in 1985. The initial value was equal to «100». Participants in the survey give the answers «better-worse» on several questions: The financial situation of the family compared to the previous period - Expected financial situation of the family during the year – Assessment of the business condition of the economy during the year - An estimation of the expected unemployment and economic downturn – An estimation of home purchases (clothes, household appliances, etc.). Index is considered to be a relative measure of the number of positive / negative responses. The index of consumer confidence is considered to be a leading indicator of business cycle. It has a limited impact on the market because it can not reflect the real state of the economy. However, it is traditionally used to predict trends in employment and the overall state of the economy. This index consists of two sub-indices – consumers’ evaluation of the current conditions and their expectations of future events. An increase in the index is a positive factor for development of the national economy and leads to an increase in USD.

Significance: Medium

Publication: After the 20th of the month at 10:00 AM (EST).

Source: Conference Board

Web: www.conference-board.org/economics/indicators.cfm


Consumer credit

Consumer credit is a form of public borrowing for the purchase of goods. This index reflects the volume of credits used by Americans through credit cards and personal loans and purchases by installments. It is an indicator of the consumer demand. The importance of this indicator shows that consumers are not afraid of taking credits to meet their material needs. However, the figures are often revised and have significant seasonal variations. For example, the value of consumer credit is growing on Christmas and New Year Eve. It has a limited impact on the market because it is published after other important indicators. Therefore, the market almost never reacts to the index. The growth of index is a positive factor for development of the national economy and leads to an increase in USD.

Significance: Medium

Publication: around the 7th of the month at 3:00 PM (EST)

Source: Federal Reserve

Web: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/g19.htm


Consumer price index (CPI)

It represents changes in the level of retail prices for the basic consumer basket. This is the main indicator of inflation. The consumer price index is considered to be more credible when it does not take into account the items of food and energy industries (core CPI). When calculating the index, prices of imported goods, services and taxes are taken into account. It is issued in the form of two types: CPI-U (to assess the impact of inflation on all segments of the population) and the CPI-W (covers only land-based workers and clerks). This index is analyzed along with PPI. If the economy develops in normal conditions, the increase in CPI and PPI can lead to an increase in basic interest rates. This, in turn, leads to an increase in USD as attractiveness of investment in currencies with higher interest rate increases.

Significance: High

Publication: in the middle of the month at 8:30 AM (EST).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor (US)

Web: www.bls.gov/cpi/


Core consumer price index (Core CPI)

Consumer price index is the main indicator of inflation measuring the price changes in goods and services within the fixed basket covering goods and services of the constant demand (food, clothes, fuel, transportation, etc). As prices for food and energy are subject to the greatest changes (such as cyclical and various economic shocks), Core CPI is presented separately. This indicator excludes food and energy (CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY).

Core CPI's growth may lead to an increase in basic interest rates. This, in turn, leads to an increase in USD as attractiveness of investment in currencies with higher interest rates increases.

The indicator is published monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics on the third week (Tuesday or Thursday) along with the main index of CPI. The main form of release is the value changes against the previous month.


Current account (Balance of payments)

It represents the ratio between the amount of payments received from abr /oad and the amount of payments going abr /oad. In other words, it shows the total foreign trade operations, trade balance, and balance between export and import, transfer payments. If coming payment exceeds payments to other countries and international organizations the balance of payments is positive. The surplus is a favorable factor for growth of the national currency. It has a limited impact on the market.

Significance: Medium

Publication: each quarter, in the middle of the month of publication at 10:00 (EST).

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce (US)

Web: www.bea.gov/bea/di/home/trade.htm


Durable goods orders

The indicator is based on a monthly review of 5000 manufacturers, including statistics on production orders of durable goods. Durable goods include products with a lifetime of more than three years, such as cars, furniture, etc. In order to highlight the variability which typical for military and transportation orders, there durable goods orders excluding defense and durable goods orders excluding transportation. This is an important indicator for the market because it provides an indication of the confidence of consumers of these products in the current economic situation. As durable goods are quite expensive, an increase in the number of orders shows the willingness of consumers to spend their own money. Thus, the growth of this indicator is a positive factor for economic development and leads to an increase in the national currency.

Significance: High

Publication: the fourth week of the month at 8:30 AM (EST)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Web:www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/adv/


Employment cost index

It includes wages and unemployment benefits, vacation pay, and insurance. This is one of the indicators which are kept a close eye by the Fed. When there are expectations of an increase in the basic interest rates, growth of its value leads to an increase in USD. It is used for medium and long-term predictions. It is considered to be the most important indicator of inflationary expectations.

Significance: Low

Publication: each quarter, after the 20th of the month at 8:30 AM (EST)

Source: Labor Department


Existing home sales

It includes the number of homes sold in the secondary real estate market during the year. It may represent the optimism of consumers (consumer confidence) and their ability to buy expensive things. These data, because of the real estate market, are subject to seasonal fluctuations. During a recession the demand for property is low, but during the period of growth it is the highest. During the winter it can make significant adjustments to the plans for construction companies. The process of construction is directly related to the population income, thus an increase in the volume of construction represents improvement of their well-being and healthy development of the economy. The level of sales depends on rates on mortgages, but the reaction to the change in rates is delayed for several months. It has a limited impact on the market. The growth of its value has a positive impact on the currency.

Significance: Medium

Publication: around the 20th of the month at 10:00 AM (EST).

Source: National Association of Realtors

Web:www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/Pages/EHSdata


Export prices

The index reflects changes in export prices during the month. It is one of indicators of inflation. It has a limited impact on the market. When there are expectations of an increase in the basic interest rate, growth of value of the index leads to an increase in USD.

Significance: Low

Publication: around the 10th of at 8:30 AM (EST)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce (US)

Web:www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.toc.htm


FOMC Meeting, percent rate

A great influence on stock markets and financial markets is made by meetings of the Fed. That's why attention to changes in interest rates, market transactions of FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and statements made by the Fed is so great.

The Fed meetings are held eight times a year. At the meeting there are discussions on the economic situation and monetary policy of the country. Policy documents are adopted and the following is determined: Federal Funds Rate Discount Rate. Final Minutes of the meeting are published in a few days. The decision about changes in rates may be taken between the announced dates of meetings.


Factory orders

Production orders include orders for durable goods (more than 50% of all orders) and short-term goods. The latter includes food, clothes, light industry goods and products that are designed to operate with durable goods. The demand for this type of products from month to month changes slightly as these products are constantly needed for life. Durable goods include products with a lifetime of more than three years. These are automobiles, furniture, etc. The demand for durable goods is reviewed monthly and changes can be quite substantial. This type of products accounts for about 54% of total orders. Basic information on the report is indicated in terms of percentage change against the previous period.

An increase in the value of this indicator represents activity of production and its possible growth, while a decrease indicates contraction of production. Therefore, when there is an increase in this figure the exchange rate of the currency increases. This indicator has a limited impact on the market. Particular attention is paid to trends in its development.

Significance: Low

Publication: first day of the month at 10:00 AM (EST)

Source: Census Department, Department of Commerce

Web:www.census.gov/indicator/


Federal budget

It characterizes the ratio between income and expenditure of the state. When the level of government income is more than expenditures, then there is surplus. If the level of the state spending is more than its income, then there is a negative balance (deficit). This rate has a negligible impact on the market. Usually it is used for a long-term economic analysis and forecast of the exchange rate of the currency.

The budget deficit leads to an increase in public debt and may be a catalyst for acceleration of inflation. There are two ways to solve the problem: 1) to reduce costs, 2) to raise taxes. If the government does not solve the problem of budget deficits, it pushes up inflation and as a result - interest rates.

Budget deficit is examined in the context of other indicators: PPI, CPI, M1, M2, M3, etc.

Significance: High

Publication: around the 20th of each month at 2:00 PM(EST)

Source: Treasury Financial Management Service

Web:www.fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html


Gross domestic product (GDP)

It is the main indicator that reflects the state of the national economy. According to the Keynesian model of economic development, GDP can be represented as the following: GDP = C + I + S + (E - M), where C - consumption, I - investment, S - public expenditure, E - Exports, M - imports. GDP is expressed as an index against the previous period, and in terms of absolute value of sum of the prices of manufactured goods and services. GDP represents the sum of volumes of consumption, investment, government spending, exports and net imports. GDP growth leads to an increase in the national currency. The bond market depends on GDP but security prices vary slightly due to the predictability of GDP based on monthly statistics of its constituents. GDP is the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy. It has a significant impact on the market. The index value is quite volatile from quarter to quarter cause of which is greater fluctuations in net exports and inventories. Therefore, economists consider the value of sales volume of the end product excluding inventories that represent unsold product, and their growth can greatly increase the value of GDP.

Significance: High

Publication: quarterly at 8:30 AM (EST), around the 20th of the month

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Web: www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp


GDP deflator

The GDP deflator is an analogue of the consumer price index (CPI) and shows a change in the price levels of all goods belonging to GDP. For calculation of the deflator, a range of goods and services is elected, and this set includes not only the prices for consumer goods and services but also the prices for investment goods, goods and services purchased by the government as well as goods and services traded on the world market. Deflator is an aggregate price index aimed at elimination of price impacts and determination of dynamics of the physical volume of the combined value indicators: GDP as a whole, GDP by economic sectors, GDP by end-use areas, GDP of total income of the state and specific social groups.

Unlike the consumer price index, GDP deflator is not measured on a fixed basket of goods but on the current structure of production. It should be remembered that GDP deflator reflects a different set of goods and services over years, so the deflators of different years are not comparable between themselves. In contrast to the deflator, the consumer price index (CPI) shows the dynamics of cost of the same set of goods and services. That's why it accurately reflects the cost of one set over time.

GDP deflator is published simultaneously with GDP three times - Advanced, Revised and Final. The indicator has a significant impact on the market. When there are expectations of an increase in the basic interest rate, growth of its value leads to an increase in the national currency as well as interest rates.

Significance: High

Publication: quarterly at 8:30 AM (EST), around the 20th of the month

Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics

Web: www.stats.bls.gov


Help-wanted index

It represents the volume of want ads published in newspapers (51 newspapers). 1987 is the basic year when its value was 100. When it is analyzed moving averages are used. If moving average shows a change in the index tendency during several months, it could serve as a sign of changing situation on the labor market. The index can give an indication about a possible change in the economic situation in different regions of the country. It has no impact on the market. Its influence is limited so that the calculation may include only a limited number of major regional newspapers. If the index value is relatively high, this could mean a shortage of workers, so companies can afford to increase wages to attract new workers that can lead to inflation.

Significance: Low

Publication: the last Thursday of the month at 10:00 AM (EST)

Source: The Conference Board


Housing starts

The indicator shows the number of new houses, construction of which has already begun during the reporting month, and it shows the number of permits for construction. This indicator is very sensitive to changes in basic interest rates as constructions are in need of bank loans. These data are subject to seasonal fluctuations. The process of construction is directly connected with the population income, thus an increase in the volume of construction represents an improvement of their well-being and healthy development of the economy. It has a limited impact on the market. The growth of its value has a positive impact on the currency. If the value varies between 1.5-2 million, the economy is in healthy condition.

Significance: Low

Publication: the third week of the month at 8:30 AM (EST)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Web: www.census.gov


Humphrey-Hawkins testimony

It is statements made by the head the U.S. Federal Reserve before the two banking committees of the U.S. Congress. These statements are held twice a year: winter and summer. The two houses of the U.S. Congress switch places on the subject of which committee is the first to listen to the report. The report sheds light on new plans and objectives of the Federal Reserve. It is all the players and try to find a hint at the possible actions the Fed in the future change in the basic interest rates. Speech has a significant impact on the market. This is one of the most important and significant events for the financial market.


Import prices

The index reflects changes in prices for import goods and services per month. It is one of indicators of inflation. As in calculation of the consumer price index (CPI) prices for import goods and services are taken into account this value characterizes the contribution of import prices into overall picture of changes in retail prices for goods and services. It has a limited impact on the market. Despite the fact that the value of this indicator has only a minor impact on the market, a report on import prices is often used by economists to study the pressure which is made by changes in foreign exchange rates on the market. When a national currency is strong, import prices mostly fall. If a certain product, for example, in Japan is 500 yen and the exchange rate is 100 yen per dollar, then in the United States this product will cost $ 5. Therefore, if usd rises against yen, for example, to 120 yen per dollar, it is clear that the price for an import good will fall and it will cost 4.17 dollars. And vice versa, in case of strong dollar against other currencies export prices will fall.

Economists generally pay attention to import prices excluding energy prices. This component is excluded from the calculation because of high volatility of the latter. The dynamics of oil prices is closely linked with the decisions of OPEC, and because these imports do not affect the rate of national currency. If there are expectations of an increase in interest rates, growth of the index leads to an increase in usd.

Significance: Low

Publication: around the 10th of the month at 8:30 AM (EST).

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce (US)

Web: www.bls.gov/mxp/home.htm


Industrial production

It is one of the main indicators reflecting the status of the national economy. The index indicates the volume of industrial production, measures industrial output. It has an impact on all indicators of economic growth, therefore, if the index rises, it means growth of the economy. Growth of production in the industry has a positive effect on the financial markets, leading to higher stock quotes and optimism of investors. In mass media its change against the previous month is usually published. For calculation of the index 2 methods are used:

  • direct measurement;
  • in cases when direct measurement is not possible, the assessment based on a combination of cost and time consumption of electricity is used.
It has a significant impact on the market. The growth of this index leads to an increase in the national currency.

Significance: medium

Publication: in the middle of the month at 9:15 AM (EST).

Web:www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current


ISM index (Institute of Supply Management index)

This index is used to assess changes in new industrial orders, industrial production, employment and the work speed of suppliers. The indicator is calculated monthly on the basis of a survey of several hundred representatives of the productive sector who are members of Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Answers are based on the comparison of the current month against the previous. Using the questions without any figures, they are asked to answer whether the level of activity becomes "better", "worse" than in the last month, or remains unchanged. The indexes base on these responses show pace and direction of changes for each analyzed activity. ISM includes information on orders, production, employment, material and industrial stocks, time of supply, export and import prices.

The overall index is calculated by weighing five indices: orders - 30% production - 25%, employment - 20%, supply - 15%, material and manufacturing stocks - 10%. The index value of above 50% is considered as an indicator of growth of manufacturing activity, and if less than 50% it indicates slower growth. As a rule, when the index value approaches to 60 investors start to worry about possible overheating of the economy, rising inflation and the Fed rates. Often, the value of this index is influenced by psychological factors than the actual state of affairs. During calculation of the index California is not included. It has a limited impact on the market. The growth of the index results in an increase in USD.

Significance: High

Publication: first business day of the month at 10:00 AM (EST).

Source: Institute for Supply Management (US)

Web: www.ism.ws/ISMReport/index.cfm


ISM services index

It represents the results of a survey of managers of the service sector in order to assess changes in the industry. The value of this index is influenced by psychological factors rather than the actual state of affairs. The process of consumption of services tends to change with a relatively constant speed, so an abr /upt change of this index is influenced by psychological factors. During the analysis of the index, special attention is paid to these factors. It has a limited impact on the market. The growth of the index is a favorable factor for an increase in USD.

Significance: Medium

Publication: first day of the month at 10:00 AM (EST)

Source: Institute for Supply Management (US)

Web: www.ism.ws/ISMReport/index.cfm


Jobless claims (Initial claims)

It shows changes in the number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits. This indicator represents the number of the registered unemployed. These figures do not always reflect the real picture of events. They are distorted by short-term factors from time to time, such as state or local holidays. This indicator can give an idea of what figures "Nonfarm payrolls" will show. For example, if during a month the value of the indicator "Jobless claims" consistently decreases, it is likely that the significance of "Nonfarm payrolls" will be great. It has a limited impact on the market. A decline in the number of applications for unemployment benefits is a favorable factor for the growth of USD.

Significance: Low

Publication: Every week on Thursdays at 8:30 AM (EST).

Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics

Web:www.stats.bls.gov


Leading indicators index

It is a weighted average index of indicators such as "production orders", "number of applications for unemployment benefits", " money supply", "average weekly hours", "building permits", etc. It is believed that it characterizes the development of the economy during the next 6 months. There is also a rule that publication of the value of the index during the previous three months is an indicator of contracting economy. The indicator grows at the average rate of 0.2% during expansion of the economy, but in case of recovery it has the average growth rate of 0.1%, and during recession it falls at the average rate of 0.3%. It should be born in mind that at the stage of growth the average deviation from the value is about 0.8%, and in times of recession is about 1.2%. The main role of the indicator is to predict points of U-turns of cycles.

As the index is made up of other previously released indices it does not bear newness. It has a limited impact on the market. The growth of the index results in an increase in USD.

Significance: Low

Publication: in the first day of each month at 18:00 Moscow time.

Source: TCB's Business Cycle Indicators

Web:www.tcb-indicators.org


Michigan consumer sentiment index

The index represents the results of survey of consumer confidence in the current economic situation. It reflects the willingness of consumers to spend their money.

The index is obtained by a monthly telephone survey of about 500 consumers. Each of them is asked to answer 5 questions regarding their financial position and views on the current status (2 issues) and future (question 3) economy.

The index is almost identical to the consumer confidence index. It is divided into 2 subordinate indexes – the index of expectations and characteristics of current conditions. The index of expectations is a part of Leading Indicators index of Conference Board. The indicator is paid attention by the market. The growth of the index results in an increase in USD.

Significance: Medium

Source: University of Michigan

Web: www.sca.isr.umich.edu


Money supply (M1, M2, M3)

These are indicators of money supply. M1 takes into account the most liquid resources such as cash, traveler's checks. M2 includes M1 and deposits (up to $ 100 000) and other highly liquid savings. M3 includes M2 and long-term deposits. M1, M2, M3 show weekly changes in money supply. The most significant is the M2. It has no impact on the market.

Significance: Low

Publication: every week on Thursdays at 4:30 PM (EST)


New home sales

This indicator shows the number of new homes sold, put up for sale and built by landowners for themselves in terms of one family per year.

This number tends to an increase when the interest rate on loans secured on real estate rises. These data are subject to seasonal fluctuations. Therefore, when analyzing the index moving averages are used. It has a limited impact on the market. The growth of its value has a positive effect on the exchange rate of the national currency.

Significance: Low

Publication: first business day of the month at 10:00 EST

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Web:www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html


Nonfarm payrolls

To determine the level of employment in the US statistics two independent features are measured:

  • An indicator of establishment employment based on payroll data in the non-agricultural sector (Nonfarm Payrolls);
  • An indicator of household employment based on the results of personal interviews (about 60,000 persons) among civilians including agricultural workers and entrepreneurs. A person considered to be the employed is the one who:
    • receives a salary during the week and is engaged in his/her own business (self-employed);
    • did not work for valid reasons (illness, vacation, labor dispute) but had a job / business.

A person considered to be unemployment is the one who failed to find a job during the previous four weeks.

According to the results of interviews the so-called payroll employment data are formed which represent the index taking into account the average weekly working hours and overtime, and wages. So, it reflects the amount of funds paid by firms in the form of wages. The indicator covers about 500 industries and 340,000 firms, data on payment, and the number of working hours. Nonfarm Payrolls is a lagging indicator which grows faster during expansion than recovery.

Nonfarm payrolls is very strong indicator that shows the change in the level of employment in the country. The growth of this indicator reflects an increase in employment and leads to an increase in USD. It is called the indicator which moves the markets." There is a rule that an increase in its value to 200 000 per month is equivalent to an increase in GDP by 3.0%.

Significance: High

Publication: first days of the month at 1.30 PM (EST).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor (US)

Web: www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm


Oil & Gas Inventories

The report on oil and gas reserves in the United States is included in the weekly statistical report of API (American Petroleum Institute) about the size of supply and demand in the oil industry. Statistics on this indicator has been collecting since 1920.The data are published weekly.

Oil market has the most booming reaction to this indicator and depending on the results of the indicator it shows price increase or decline that affects the situation on the stock market, particularly, the quotations of securities of the oil industry.

Significance: Low

Publication: first Friday of the month at 08.30 AM EST.


Personal income

The index includes the salaries of workers and employees, income from rents, dividends, bank interest, social security outlays, etc. Personal income is a secondary indicator of future consumer demand. It has a limited impact on the market. Changes in this indicator show the status of the purchasing power of the population. The growth of its value can lead to an increase in the volume of retail sales that is a positive factor for the development of the national economy and leads to an increase USD.

Significance: Medium

Publication: around the 20th of the month at 8:30 (EST).

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce (US)

Web: www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#personal


Personal spending

The index reflects changes in spending to meet the individual needs of citizens. It has a limited impact on the market. The index includes three components: the cost of the acquisition of durable goods, short-term goods and services. Retail sales indicator provides data on the consumption of durable and short-term goods. The process of consumption of services, in turn, varies with a relatively constant speed, so the value of this indicator is often predictable. Thus, the only significant deviation of the rate of the projected values may have an impact on the rate of the national currency. The growth of its value is a positive factor for the development of the national economy and leads to an increase in USD.

Significance: Medium

Publication: around the 20th of the month at 8:30 AM (EST)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce (US)

Web: www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#personal


Philadelphia Fed index

It represents the results of the manufacture survey in Philadelphia to determine their attitude to the current economic situation. The number below the "0" is an indicator of a contracting economy. It has a limited impact on the market. It is kept a close eye on because the index is published before ISM (formerly NAPM) and may give an idea of what the indicator of business activity will be at the national level. The growth of the value of this index leads to an increase in USD.

Significance: Medium

Publication: third Thursday of the month at 10:00 AM (EST)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Web:www.phil.frb.org/econ/bos/bosschedule.html


Producer price index (PPI)

It represents changes in the prices for the "basket" of goods produced in the industry. It measures average changes over time in prices received by domestic producers for their output. The index of industrial prices is considered to be more credible when it does not take into account food and energy industry sectors (core PPI). The PPI is one of the oldest continuous systems of statistical data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as well as one of the oldest economic time series compiled by the Federal Government.

The main groups' contributions are as follows:

  • Consumer goods (mainly cars) - 40%
  • Food - 23%
  • Energy products (mainly gasoline and other fuels) - 14%.

The remaining 23% belongs to various items of equipment, machinery and vehicles. There is also the index of raw materials and unfinished products (chips or parts of mechanisms). In calculation of the index the prices of import goods and services are not taken into account. It has a significant impact on the market. When there are expectations of an increase in the basic interest rate, the growth of its value leads to an increase in USD. In general, the dynamics of industrial prices outpaces the consumer price index (CPI) and, therefore, is used by many analysts as a preliminary assessment on the inflation. The growth of PPI leads to cost-put inflation which is the worst kind of inflation as it has deeper impact on the economy compared to demand inflation.

Significance: Medium

Publication: around the 10th of the month at 8:30 AM (EST).

Source: Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor

Web:www.bls.gov/ppi/


Productivity

The index shows changes in the volume of output per one worker. Labor productivity is a very important indicator to assess the status of the economy. It has a significant impact on the market. However, it is necessary to point out that from time to time it may be misleading. For example, a reduction in the number of the employed in manufacturing during contraction of the economy leads to an increase in productivity. This may also occur due to strikes. The growth of the index is a positive factor for the development of the national economy and leads to an increase in USD.

Significance: Medium

Publication: around the 10th of the month at 8:30 AM (EST)


Real earnings

The index is calculated taking into account inflation. To exclude the impact of inflation the calculation is made in relation to the base year (1982). It is expressed in terms of absolute value and an index against the previous period. It can serve as an indicator of the development of inflation.

Significance: Low

Publication: in the middle of the month together with CPI


Redbook

It is a weekly report on retail sales. It represents a review of retail sales of the biggest stores. The first review compares the first week of the month with the first week of the previous month, the second review compares the first two weeks of the current month with the previous month. So, the complete picture is formed only after the publication of the last review. It has no influence on the market because the limited number of stores is engaged in the analysis.

Significance: Low

Publication: weekly on Tuesdays at 10.30 AM (EST)


Retail Sales

The index shows the change in the volume of sales in the retail trade. It characterizes the level of consumer spending and demand. This indicator is divided into sales of cars and sales of "the rest". As the number of cars is a very variable value, so the most correct information is provided by the part of the indicator which does not take into account sales of cars.

The volume of retail sales is included in the GDP formula. The important information in the report on GDP is the percentage change in sales of consumer goods. Shortcomings of the data are as follows: reflection of the cost of acquisition of goods ignoring the purchase of services, and volatility, frequent revisions and difficult forecast.

The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the economy which leads to an increase in the national currency. The lower-than- expected values are interpreted as a signal to the slowdown of GDP growth, lower inflation, lower interest rates and an increase in the bond market. The high figures leads to back reaction.

Sales are divided into 2 main categories: sales of durable goods (40%) and non-durables (60%). In durable goods vehicles dominate (3/5), the remaining 2 / 5 are composed of construction materials, furniture, household goods. Non-durable goods are consumer goods, food, car fuel, restaurant food, medicines. The growth of retail sales is a positive factor for the development of the national economy and leads to an increase in the national currency. It has a limited impact on the market. The data are collected by the US Census Bureau) through a random survey of retailers across the country.

Significance: High

Publication: in the middle of the month at 8.30 AM (EST)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Web: www.census.gov/marts/www/marts.html


Vehicle Sales

This indicator represents the number of cars sold in the United States during the period. The indicator measures the volume of monthly sales of all vehicles produced within the country.

It is an important indicator of the consumer demand as sales of cars accounts for approximately 25% of all retail sales. The demand for them depends on fluctuations in interest rates.

Significance: Low

Publication: in the first three days of each month

Source: Department of Commerce (U.S)

Web:www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/wholesale_retail_trade/motor_vehicle_sales.htm


Macroeconomic indicators of the European Union

Balance of payments

It represents the ratio between the amount of payments received from abr /oad and the amount of payments going abr /oad. In other words, it shows the total foreign trade operations, trade balance, and balance between export and import, transfer payments. If coming payment exceeds payments to other countries and international organizations the balance of payments is positive. The surplus is a favorable factor for growth of the national currency. It has a limited impact on the market.


Balance of trade

It represents the difference between exports and imports. The indicator is published monthly. It has a low impact on the market.


Business climate indicator

The indicator reflects the results of a survey in the business sector of the euro-zone and their views on the current economic situation. It is published monthly at 5:00 AM (EST).


Consumer confidence index

It is an indicator designed to measure consumer confidence, which is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending. Global consumer confidence is not measured. Country by country analysis indicates huge variance around the globe. In an interconnected global economy, tracking international consumer confidence is a lead indicator of economic trends. A strong consumer confidence report, especially at a time when the economy is lagging behind estimates, can move the market by making investors more willing to purchase equities. The idea behind consumer confidence is that a happy consumer - one who feels that his or her standard of living is increasing - is more likely to spend more and make bigger purchases, like a new car or home.

It is a highly subjective survey, and the results should be interpreted as such. People can grab onto a small situation that garners a lot of mainstream press, such as gas prices, and use that as their basis for overall economic conditions, fair or not. There are no real data sets here, and people are not economists, so they cannot be counted on to realize that, for example, because gas prices may only represent 5% of their expenses, they should not sour their entire economic outlook.


Economic sentiment indicator

This indicator is the most important in assessing the prospects for economic growth. It is a composite index and its calculation is very difficult. Its meaning has the same impact on the market as the industrial confidence index and the index of consumer confidence. In calculation it also uses in the index of confidence in the construction and the price index for shares. Being an integral value for the majority of survey indices, it can have a great impact on the market.


Gross domestic product

It is the main indicator that reflects the state of the national economy. According to the Keynesian model of economic development, GDP can be represented as the following: GDP = C + I + S + (E - M), where C - consumption, I - investment, S - public expenditure, E - Exports, M - imports. GDP is expressed as an index against the previous period, and in terms of absolute value of sum of the prices of manufactured goods and services. GDP represents the sum of volumes of consumption, investment, government spending, exports and net imports. GDP growth leads to an increase in the national currency. The bond market depends on GDP but security prices vary slightly due to the predictability of GDP based on monthly statistics of its constituents.

GDP is the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy. It has a significant impact on the market. The index value is quite volatile from quarter to quarter cause of which is greater fluctuations in net exports and inventories. Therefore, economists consider the value of sales volume of the end product excluding inventories that represent unsold product, and their growth can greatly increase the value of GDP.


Harmonized index customer price (HICP)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is an indicator of inflation and price stability for the European Central Bank (ECB). It is a consumer price index which is compiled according to a methodology that has been harmonized across EU countries. The euro area HICP is a weighted average of price indices of member states who have adopted the euro. The primary goal of the ECB is to maintain price stability, defined as keeping the HICP below but close to 2% for the medium term. In order to do that, the ECB can control the short term interest rate through Eonia, the European over night index average, which affects market expectations. The HICP is also used to assess the convergence criteria on inflation which countries must fulfill in order to adopt the euro. In the United Kingdom, the HICP is called the CPI and is used to set the inflation target of the Bank of England.

The HICP differs from the US CPI in two primary aspects. First, the HICP attempts to incorporate rural consumers into the sample while the US maintains a survey strictly based on the urban population. In actuality, the HICP does not fully incorporate rural consumers since it only uses rural samples for creating weights; prices are often only collected in urban areas. The HICP also differs from the US CPI by excluding owner-occupied housing from its scope. The US CPI calculates "rental-equivalent" costs for owner-occupied housing while the HICP considers such expenditure as investment and excludes it. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the producer of the US CPI, has recently calculated an experimental index designed for direct comparison with the HICP.


Import prices

The indicator reflects the change in the import prices during the month. It is an indicator of the inflation. Published monthly. The index is closely kept an eye on by the market.


Industrial production

It shows the level of changes in industrial production in the country. The indicator takes into account manufacturing and mining industries. It is published monthly. The indicator is paid attention by the market.


Manufacturing orders

The indicator shows changes in the number of orders for the products of German enterprises. It represents the prospects for economic development. Published monthly.


Manufacturing production

It shows the change in volume of products produced by the manufacturing industry. Published monthly. The indicator is paid attention by the market.


M3 money supply

It includes the amount of cash in circulation, check deposits, long-term deposits. Bundesbank and European Central Bank believe that it is one of the most important indicators of inflation. A maximum acceptable value of the indicator is usually determined, and in case of exceeding this value there is an increase in interest rates. In 2003 the goal of the ECB on the growth of the M3 was 4.5% per year. It is necessary to monitor forecasts of the level changes. The reaction of the market may be substantial. It is published monthly.


New industrial orders

It reflects changes in the demand for manufactured products and services. It is an indicator of industrial production in the future. Published monthly at 5:00 AM (EST)



PMI

The index is one of the diffusion indexes. It is based on a survey with the question of whether the conditions of the business with relation to new orders, prices, labor market, terms of order fulfillment, etc. A respondent choose on the three types of response: "no", "yes", "no change". Such indexes effectively follow the dynamics of the economic cycle.

Drop in the index after a period of growth predicts a transition of business-cycle from the stage of expansion to recession, and upward turn after a drop predicts the beginning of recovery. The close correlation between the diffusion indexes with economic dynamics assessed by long-term statistics allows you to use them even for predicting future values of GDP.

Such indexes are published by almost all countries of G7. German PMI started publishing in 1998. The combined Euro-zone PMI has been published since 1999.

The value of 50 indicates that during the period there has been neither an increase nor decline in the business sector. The value above this figure means the growth in the sector. If the value of the indicator is below 50, it means that the economy contracts.

The indicator has a significant impact on the market. It is useful to analyze not only changes in the overall index, but also changes in the most important components.

PMI services

The meaning of the index is the same as the industrial PMI, but business optimism in the service sector is studied. The value of 50 indicates that during the period there has been neither an increase nor decline in the business sector. The value above this figure means the growth in the sector. If the value of the indicator is below 50, it means that the economy contracts.

The index has a significant impact on the market, sometimes its effect is stronger than the industrial PMI, as in developed countries 70% of GDP is made by the service sector.


Producer price index

It represents changes in the prices for the "basket" of goods produced in the industry. It measures average changes over time in prices received by domestic producers for their output. The index of industrial prices is considered to be more credible when it does not take into account food and energy industry sectors (core PPI). The PPI is one of the oldest continuous systems of statistical data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as well as one of the oldest economic time series compiled by the Federal Government.

The main groups' contributions are as follows:

  • Consumer goods (mainly cars) - 40%
  • Food - 23%
  • Energy products (mainly gasoline and other fuels) - 14%.

The remaining 23% belongs to various items of equipment, machinery and vehicles. There is also the index of raw materials and unfinished products (chips or parts of mechanisms). In calculation of the index the prices of import goods and services are not taken into account. It has a significant impact on the market. When there are expectations of an increase in the basic interest rate, the growth of its value leads to an increase in the national currency. In general, the dynamics of industrial prices outpaces the consumer price index (CPI) and, therefore, is used by many analysts as a preliminary assessment on the inflation. The growth of PPI leads to cost-put inflation which is the worst kind of inflation as it has deeper impact on the economy compared to demand inflation.

It is published at 5:00 AM (EST) on the 2nd working day of the month.


Retail trade

The index shows the change in the volume of sales in the retail trade. It is an indicator of consumer spending and, therefore, as an indicator of consumer demand and consumer confidence it can serve as a key point for the foreign exchange market in reversal points of the business cycle. Published monthly at 5:00 AM (EST)


Foreign trade

The indicator represents the difference between exports and imports of goods and services to the in terms of their prices. Published monthly at 5:00 AM (EST).


Industrial Production

The indicator reflects the change in industrial production and the activity of industrial sectors. Published monthly at 5:00 AM (EST).


Inflation (HICP)

It is calculated on the basis of consumer price indices (CPI) of the countries that are members of the territorial entity. The harmonized consumer price index smoothes the differences in the coverage of goods and services involved in the calculation of national consumer price indices. Published monthly at 5 AM (EST).


Unemployment rate

The unemployment rate is the percent of able-bodied population who actively look for a job but cannot find it. Published monthly at 5:00 AM (EST)


Macroeconomic indicators of Germany

IFO survey

It is an overview of the German research institute IFO. The Survey assesses the level of business activity in the country. The value of the indicator may vary from 80 to 120.Published monthly at 4:00 AM (EST).


Manufacturing orders

The indicator shows changes in the number of orders for the products of German enterprises. It represents the prospects for economic development. Published monthly at 6:00 AM (EST).


Industrial production

It shows the level of changes in industrial production in the country. The indicator takes into account the manufacturing and mining industry. Published monthly at 6:00 AM (EST)


Unemployment rate

The unemployment rate is the percent of able-bodied population who actively look for a job but cannot find it. Published monthly at 3:55 AM (EST).


Retail sales

The index shows the change in the volume of sales in the retail trade. It is an indicator of consumer spending and, therefore, as an indicator of consumer demand and consumer confidence it can serve as a key point for the foreign exchange market in reversal points of the business cycle. Published monthly at 2:00 AM (EST).


ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is ascertained monthly. Up to 350 financial experts take part in the survey. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic for the expected economic development in Germany in six months. Published monthly at 6:00 AM (EST)


Macroeconomic indicators of the UK

Average earnings

The indicator takes into account the growth of earnings over the past three months. This is a good indicator of future inflation, as growth in earnings is the cause of rising prices. It is one of the defining indicators that the Bank of England takes into account during its meetings on interest rates. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).


CBI industrial trends

A survey of senior manufacturing executives on trends in output, prices, exports, and costs. The CBI Industrial Trends Survey collects data on topics like current business confidence, capacity utilization, and investment intentions. The survey differs from most other economic surveys in that it focuses on the opinions of executives rather than quantitative data. Published monthly at 7:00 AM (EST).


CBI Distributive Trades Survey

It is a survey conducted by the Confederation of br /itish Industry. The indicator represents short-term tendencies in the sector of retail and wholesale trade. It is calculated on the basis of interviews in the retail trade sector. Published monthly 7:00 AM (EST). Gross domestic product (GDP)

It is the main indicator that reflects the state of the national economy. According to the Keynesian model of economic development, GDP can be represented as the following: GDP = C + I + S + (E - M), where C - consumption, I - investment, S - public expenditure, E - Exports, M - imports. GDP is expressed as an index against the previous period, and in terms of absolute value of sum of the prices of manufactured goods and services. GDP represents the sum of volumes of consumption, investment, government spending, exports and net imports. GDP growth leads to an increase in the national currency. The bond market depends on GDP but security prices vary slightly due to the predictability of GDP based on monthly statistics of its constituents. GDP is the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy. It has a significant impact on the market. The index value is quite volatile from quarter to quarter cause of which is greater fluctuations in net exports and inventories. Therefore, economists consider the value of sales volume of the end product excluding inventories that represent unsold product, and their growth can greatly increase the value of GDP.


Producer input prices (PPI input)

A monthly survey that measures change in input prices as incurred by UK manufacturers. Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operation costs of running the business. The index can be used as a measure of inflation, given that higher input costs will likely be passed on from producers to consumers in the form of higher retail prices. The figure is also calculated as Core Input PPI, which excludes volatile inputs such as food and energy that may distort the data. As such, the core figure is a more appropriate measure of inflation. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).


Producer output prices (PPI output)

A monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. The figure is also known as "Factory Gate Price" because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory. Increased prices in manufacturing typically lead to higher retail prices for consumers. However, it is also likely that higher output prices are caused by manufacturers charging a higher premium due to higher demand for their goods. Consequently, market trends in consumption should be considered with Output PPI to avoid data misinterpretation. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).


Retail Prices Index

RPI is a measure of inflation published monthly by the Office for National Statistics. It measures the change in the cost of a basket of retail goods and services. It was once the principal official measure of inflation, but it been superseded in that regard by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The RPI is used by the government as a base for various purposes, such as the indexation of pensions and amounts payable on index-linked securities, including index-linked gilts. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).


Purchasing managers index CIPS (PMI)

The index is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 600 industrial companies. The panel is stratified geographically and by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) group, based on the regional, and industry contribution to GDP. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month based on data collected mid-month. For each of the indicators the ‘Report' shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of higher/better responses and lower/worse responses, and the 'diffusion' index. This index is the sum of the positive responses plus a half of those responding 'the same'.


Non-EU Trade Balance

The totality of all country's trade operations in world's rate with the deduction of trade with the counties which are included in European Union. The balance of trade surplus - is the difference between the amount of produced and exported production, and the amount of imported production. Simply speaking the balance of trade surplus can be calculated according to this formula:

Trade balance = Export - Import

When the balance of trade surplus turns out to be positive, it means that the country's economy develops in a good way and the trade balance is in the state of surplus. If the process is opposite and the trade balance is in shortcoming, then there will surely be some deficit and of course it will have a bad influence on the economical state, national currency and confidence in country's lending activity. The trade balance is measured in the currency that the indicator was calculated from. Consequently, the br /itish trade balance is measured in br /itish pounds. The index is referred to the first group and turns out to be one of the most significant indicators of economy's successfulness.


Public Sector Net Credit Requirements (PSNCR)

It represents the demand of the public and government sector for cash. It includes the budget deficit, i.e. the difference between income and expenditures. A large fiscal deficit leads to an increase in public debt and can serve as a catalyst for accelerating inflation. It is caused by either very expensive or low income of the budget. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).


M4 Money Supply

It is used as an indicator of changes in money supply. It includes the amount of cash in circulation, the total amount of loans as well as the amount of government borrowings. M4 is considered to be a good indicator for the level of inflation. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).


Retail Sales

The index shows the change in the volume of sales in the retail trade. It is an indicator of consumer spending and, therefore, as an indicator of consumer demand and consumer confidence it can serve as a key point for the foreign exchange market in reversal points of the business cycle. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).


Net Consumer Credit

The amount of loans granted to individuals. It reflects changes in the volume of consumer lending. The value of the indicator can show if the economy is overheating or not as consumers take more credits than necessary. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).


Claimant count rate

It is the number of job application in employment centers. This indicator reflects ongoing changes in the level of unemployment. Published monthly at 4:30 (EST).


Trade balance

The trade balance represents the difference between export and import of goods and services of countries in terms of their price. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).


Industrial output

It represents the volume of industrial output. The index includes the volume of manufacturing output and takes into account the volume of output in industries such as mining, utilities. Published monthly at 4:30 AM (EST).


Macroeconomic indicators of Japan

TANKAN

It is a quarterly economic report published by the Department of Research and Statistics of the Bank of Japan. It is based on assessments of more than 8000 companies, firms and institutions by the following economic parameters: 1) business environment, 2) production and marketing, 3) supply and demand, price level, 4) income, 5) direct investments, 6) employment 7) taxes. Tankan is the most important indicator of Japan. Published quarterly at 7:50 AM (summer) / 06:50 AM (winter) (EST)


Balance of payments

It represents the ratio between the amount of payments received from abr /oad and the amount of payments going abr /oad. In other words, it shows the total foreign trade operations, trade balance, and balance between export and import, transfer payments. If coming payment exceeds payments to other countries and international organizations the balance of payments is positive. The surplus is a favorable factor for growth of the national currency. It has a limited impact on the market. Published monthly at 7:30 AM (summer) / 06:30 AM (winter) (EST).


Balance of trade

It represents the difference between exports and imports. The indicator is published monthly. It has a low impact on the market. Published monthly at 7:30 AM (summer) / 06:30 AM (winter) (EST).


Industrial production index

Industrial output of the country and its changes. It is composed of mining and manufacturing industry volumes, the forest and public sectors as well as the production of electricity are also taken into consideration. The indicator reflects the level of the economy, but does not determine the direction of its development. An increase in value of this indicator leads to the growth of the national currency rate. Published monthly at 7:50 AM (summer) / 06:50 AM (winter) (EST).


Gross domestic product (GDP)

It is the main indicator that reflects the state of the national economy. According to the Keynesian model of economic development, GDP can be represented as the following: GDP = C + I + S + (E - M), where C - consumption, I - investment, S - public expenditure, E - Exports, M - imports. GDP is expressed as an index against the previous period, and in terms of absolute value of sum of the prices of manufactured goods and services. GDP represents the sum of volumes of consumption, investment, government spending, exports and net imports. GDP growth leads to an increase in the national currency. The bond market depends on GDP but security prices vary slightly due to the predictability of GDP based on monthly statistics of its constituents.

GDP is the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy. It has a significant impact on the market. The index value is quite volatile from quarter to quarter cause of which is greater fluctuations in net exports and inventories. Therefore, economists consider the value of sales volume of the end product excluding inventories that represent unsold product, and their growth can greatly increase the value of GDP.


Unemployment rate

The unemployment rate is the percent of able-bodied population who actively look for a job but cannot find it. Published monthly at 7:30 AM (summer) / 06:30 AM (winter) (EST).


Consumer price index (CPI)

Indicator showing the change of value of the consumer basket of goods and services. It is calculated using average items chosen by residents. The index has a greater impact on the calculation of the cost of living of citizens and is also an inflation indicator. According to the index rising interest rates begin to rise. Published monthly at 7:30 AM (summer) / 06:30 AM (winter) (EST).


Corporate Goods Price Index

It reflects changes in the price level of large shipments. It is calculated as a weighted average of three components: domestic wholesale prices, wholesale prices for export goods and wholesale prices for import goods. Published monthly at 07:50 AM (summer) / 06:50 AM (winter) EST.


Leading and coincident indices

The indicator is a weighted average of 13 main indicators. It is used to determine the future of the economy. It is composed of 11 indicators and also used to assess the current status of the economy. Published monthly at 01:00 AM (summer) / 00:00 AM (winter) (EST).


Retail sales

Changes in retail sales volume, which are determined by consumer demand. In index values the sales of all kinds of goods are taken into account. The most volatile estimate is the sales of automobiles, therefore the most reliable data is calculated without this aspect. The increase in retail sales has an impact on the growth of the national currency rate and on the country's economy as a whole. Published monthly at 7:50 AM (summer) / 06:50 AM (winter) (EST).